Eerste Divisie · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eerste Divisie average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Jong PSV U21 at 53%, the draw at 21% and FC OSS at 25%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jong PSV U21 have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), FC OSS 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 66% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.03 for Jong PSV U21 and 1.35 for FC OSS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV U21 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| FC OSS | 2 | 100% | 0% | 50% |
More: Jong PSV U21 season stats · FC OSS season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.