Liga 2 · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga 2 average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Farense at 40%, the draw at 30% and Felgueiras 1932 at 30%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Farense have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Felgueiras 1932 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 33% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Farense and 0.95 for Felgueiras 1932. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Farense season stats · Felgueiras 1932 season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.