Urvalsdeild · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Breidablik at 40%, the draw at 21% and Fram Reykjavik at 39%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.9.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breidablik have 13 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Fram Reykjavik 13 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Breidablik and 1.9 for Fram Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 19 | 68% | 53% | 68% |
| Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 72% | 67% | 72% |
More: Breidablik season stats · Fram Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.