Liga MX · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Atletico San Luis at 34%, the draw at 26% and CF Pachuca at 40%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 52% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 48% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 59% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atletico San Luis 2.90, draw 3.40, CF Pachuca 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico San Luis have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), CF Pachuca 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Atletico San Luis and 1.38 for CF Pachuca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| CF Pachuca | 3 | 67% | 0% | 33% |
More: Atletico San Luis season stats · CF Pachuca season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.