NWSL (W) · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Angel City W at 32%, the draw at 27% and NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 41%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Angel City W have 11 in 17 this season (7 of 9 at home), NJ/NY Gotham FC W 6 in 20 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Angel City W and 1.34 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel City W | 17 | 65% | 18% | 65% |
| NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 20 | 30% | 15% | 30% |
More: Angel City W season stats · NJ/NY Gotham FC W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.