Canadian Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts York United at 35%, the draw at 20% and Supra Du Quebec at 45%, from expected goals of 2 and 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. York United have 9 in 15 this season (6 of 7 at home), Supra Du Quebec 10 in 16 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2 for York United and 2.25 for Supra Du Quebec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 15 | 60% | 60% | 73% |
| Supra Du Quebec | 16 | 63% | 31% | 81% |
More: York United season stats · Supra Du Quebec season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.