Canadian Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 66% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts York United at 48%, the draw at 20% and Supra Du Quebec at 32%, from expected goals of 2.32 and 1.91.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. York United have 9 in 15 this season (6 of 7 at home), Supra Du Quebec 11 in 17 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 15 and 17 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 79%, from expected goals of 2.32 for York United and 1.91 for Supra Du Quebec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 15 | 60% | 60% | 73% |
| Supra Du Quebec | 17 | 65% | 35% | 82% |
More: York United season stats · Supra Du Quebec season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.