Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 23 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Vikingur Reykjavik at 65%, the draw at 18% and Valur Reykjavik at 17%, from expected goals of 2.61 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Reykjavik have 15 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Valur Reykjavik 14 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.61 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.3 for Valur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 19 | 79% | 74% | 63% |
| Valur Reykjavik | 19 | 74% | 58% | 74% |
More: Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · Valur Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.