Allsvenskan · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Vasteras SK FK at 57%, the draw at 21% and Kalmar FF at 22%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 58% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 42% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.62, draw 3.40, Kalmar FF 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasteras SK FK have 10 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Kalmar FF 10 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.01 for Vasteras SK FK and 1.18 for Kalmar FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK FK | 17 | 59% | 41% | 47% |
| Kalmar FF | 17 | 59% | 29% | 53% |
More: Vasteras SK FK season stats · Kalmar FF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.