Vaprus v Flora Tallinn — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Meistriliiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Vaprus at 31%, the draw at 23% and Flora Tallinn at 46%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 1.79.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Vaprus have 14 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Flora Tallinn 16 in 21 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 72%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.

Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Vaprus and 1.79 for Flora Tallinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Vaprus season stats · Flora Tallinn season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.