Primera Nacional · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Temperley at 42%, the draw at 27% and Midland at 31%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Temperley have 8 in 25 this season (7 of 12 at home), Midland 5 in 24 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Temperley and 1.12 for Midland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Temperley season stats · Midland season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.