Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Stjarnan at 61%, the draw at 19% and Thor Akureyri at 20%, from expected goals of 2.39 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stjarnan have 15 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Thor Akureyri 11 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.39 for Stjarnan and 1.34 for Thor Akureyri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stjarnan | 18 | 83% | 72% | 83% |
| Thor Akureyri | 19 | 58% | 42% | 53% |
More: Stjarnan season stats · Thor Akureyri season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.