MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts St. Louis City at 46%, the draw at 25% and Houston Dynamo at 30%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.25.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 47% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: St. Louis City 2.05, draw 3.60, Houston Dynamo 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. St. Louis City have 8 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Houston Dynamo 7 in 19 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.6 for St. Louis City and 1.25 for Houston Dynamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 19 | 42% | 32% | 63% |
| Houston Dynamo | 19 | 37% | 21% | 37% |
More: St. Louis City season stats · Houston Dynamo season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.