First League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Septemvri Sofia at 29%, the draw at 24% and CSKA 1948 at 47%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.63.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 50% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 47% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Septemvri Sofia 5.50, draw 3.75, CSKA 1948 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Septemvri Sofia have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), CSKA 1948 5 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.63 for CSKA 1948. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 4 | 75% | 0% | 50% |
| CSKA 1948 | 5 | 100% | 60% | 100% |
More: Septemvri Sofia season stats · CSKA 1948 season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.