Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts RB Leipzig W at 27%, the draw at 24% and Bayer Leverkusen W at 49%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. RB Leipzig W have 17 in 26 this season (8 of 13 at home), Bayer Leverkusen W 18 in 26 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.2 for RB Leipzig W and 1.71 for Bayer Leverkusen W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig W | 26 | 65% | 50% | 65% |
| Bayer Leverkusen W | 26 | 69% | 42% | 58% |
More: RB Leipzig W season stats · Bayer Leverkusen W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.