Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Radomiak Radom at 48%, the draw at 23% and Zaglebie Lubin at 29%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Radomiak Radom have 4 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Zaglebie Lubin 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Radomiak Radom and 1.32 for Zaglebie Lubin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom | 4 | 100% | 75% | 75% |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
More: Radomiak Radom season stats · Zaglebie Lubin season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.