Eredivisie · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:30. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eredivisie average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts PSV Eindhoven at 33%, the draw at 22% and Groningen at 45%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 70% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 30% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 65% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.42, draw 4.75, Groningen 6.00.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PSV Eindhoven have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Groningen 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 82% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.64 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.92 for Groningen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Groningen | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: PSV Eindhoven season stats · Groningen season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.