NWSL (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 01:45. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Portland Thorns W at 51%, the draw at 26% and Denver Summit W at 22%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Portland Thorns W have 12 in 20 this season (4 of 9 at home), Denver Summit W 10 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Portland Thorns W and 0.9 for Denver Summit W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns W | 20 | 60% | 45% | 55% |
| Denver Summit W | 19 | 53% | 26% | 63% |
More: Portland Thorns W season stats · Denver Summit W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.