Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 23 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 59% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Pogon Szczecin at 59%, the draw at 21% and Wisla Krakow at 20%, from expected goals of 2.18 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Pogon Szczecin have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Wisla Krakow 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.18 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.21 for Wisla Krakow. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Wisla Krakow | 4 | 100% | 25% | 100% |
More: Pogon Szczecin season stats · Wisla Krakow season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.