Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Pogon Szczecin at 51%, the draw at 23% and Wisla Krakow at 27%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Pogon Szczecin have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Wisla Krakow 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.3 for Wisla Krakow. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Wisla Krakow | 4 | 100% | 25% | 100% |
More: Pogon Szczecin season stats · Wisla Krakow season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.