Damallsvenskan (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 66%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Piteå W at 63%, the draw at 19% and Uppsala W at 18%, from expected goals of 2.24 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Piteå W have 8 in 14 this season (4 of 7 at home), Uppsala W 11 in 14 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.24 for Piteå W and 1.11 for Uppsala W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Piteå W season stats · Uppsala W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.