Super League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super League average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Panetolikos at 43%, the draw at 28% and Asteras Tripolis at 29%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 45% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 55% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 47% | 50% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Panetolikos 2.55, draw 3.00, Asteras Tripolis 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Panetolikos have 16 in 36 this season (11 of 18 at home), Asteras Tripolis 17 in 36 (7 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 44%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Panetolikos and 0.98 for Asteras Tripolis. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos | 36 | 44% | 19% | 47% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 36 | 47% | 22% | 50% |
More: Panetolikos season stats · Asteras Tripolis season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.