Paide v Nõmme United — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Meistriliiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Paide at 57%, the draw at 22% and Nõmme United at 21%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.11.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Paide have 11 in 22 this season (4 of 10 at home), Nõmme United 21 in 23 (10 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 79%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Paide and 1.11 for Nõmme United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Paide season stats · Nõmme United season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.