MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando City SC at 45%, the draw at 23% and Real Salt Lake at 32%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.47.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 62% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 38% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 63% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Orlando City SC 2.30, draw 3.80, Real Salt Lake 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando City SC have 13 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Real Salt Lake 12 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Orlando City SC and 1.47 for Real Salt Lake. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 19 | 68% | 58% | 63% |
| Real Salt Lake | 18 | 67% | 33% | 78% |
More: Orlando City SC season stats · Real Salt Lake season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.