Serie B · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Operario-PR at 45%, the draw at 27% and Vila Nova at 27%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Operario-PR have 15 in 22 this season (7 of 12 at home), Vila Nova 9 in 22 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Operario-PR and 1 for Vila Nova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | 22 | 68% | 23% | 59% |
| Vila Nova | 22 | 41% | 14% | 50% |
More: Operario-PR season stats · Vila Nova season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.