NWSL (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts North Carolina Courage W at 56%, the draw at 22% and Boston Legacy W at 22%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. North Carolina Courage W have 13 in 18 this season (8 of 9 at home), Boston Legacy W 10 in 20 (2 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.9 for North Carolina Courage W and 1.1 for Boston Legacy W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Courage W | 18 | 72% | 44% | 56% |
| Boston Legacy W | 20 | 50% | 25% | 60% |
More: North Carolina Courage W season stats · Boston Legacy W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.