First League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 27%, the draw at 26% and CSKA Sofia at 48%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.5.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 43% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 57% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 43% | -11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lokomotiv Sofia 5.25, draw 4.10, CSKA Sofia 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), CSKA Sofia 4 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.5 for CSKA Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 60% | 40% | 100% |
| CSKA Sofia | 5 | 80% | 40% | 40% |
More: Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · CSKA Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.