First League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 38%, the draw at 27% and Arda Kardzhali at 36%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.27.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 42% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 58% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 40% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2.90, draw 3.00, Arda Kardzhali 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 2 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Arda Kardzhali 1 in 4 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 36% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.27 for Arda Kardzhali. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 40% | 0% | 40% |
| Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 25% | 0% | 50% |
More: Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · Arda Kardzhali season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.