Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Keflavik at 54%, the draw at 21% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 25%, from expected goals of 2.04 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Keflavik have 12 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), IBV Vestmannaeyjar 13 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.04 for Keflavik and 1.33 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keflavik | 19 | 63% | 42% | 74% |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 19 | 68% | 47% | 79% |
More: Keflavik season stats · IBV Vestmannaeyjar season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.