Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts KA Akureyri at 29%, the draw at 20% and KR Reykjavik at 51%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 2.36.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KA Akureyri have 11 in 18 this season (4 of 9 at home), KR Reykjavik 17 in 19 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.78 for KA Akureyri and 2.36 for KR Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KA Akureyri | 18 | 61% | 44% | 61% |
| KR Reykjavik | 19 | 89% | 89% | 89% |
More: KA Akureyri season stats · KR Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.