USL Championship · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Indy Eleven at 51%, the draw at 22% and Louisville City at 27%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Indy Eleven have 7 in 18 this season (4 of 9 at home), Louisville City 11 in 20 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Indy Eleven and 1.38 for Louisville City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 18 | 39% | 28% | 50% |
| Louisville City | 20 | 55% | 40% | 65% |
More: Indy Eleven season stats · Louisville City season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.