Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts IA Akranes at 51%, the draw at 22% and FH Hafnarfjordur at 26%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IA Akranes have 13 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), FH Hafnarfjordur 10 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.93 for IA Akranes and 1.33 for FH Hafnarfjordur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA Akranes | 19 | 68% | 53% | 68% |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 19 | 53% | 37% | 63% |
More: IA Akranes season stats · FH Hafnarfjordur season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.