Serie B · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Hellas Verona at 24%, the draw at 28% and Ascoli at 48%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.35.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 42% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 58% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 48% | 50% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hellas Verona 1.60, draw 3.60, Ascoli 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hellas Verona have 19 in 38 this season (8 of 19 at home), Ascoli 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Hellas Verona and 1.35 for Ascoli. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 38 | 50% | 21% | 47% |
| Ascoli | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Hellas Verona season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.