Liga MX · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:07. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Guadalajara Chivas at 38%, the draw at 28% and Club Tijuana at 33%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 51% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 49% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 57% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Guadalajara Chivas 1.53, draw 4.20, Club Tijuana 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guadalajara Chivas have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Club Tijuana 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.1 for Club Tijuana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| Club Tijuana | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: Guadalajara Chivas season stats · Club Tijuana season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.