La Liga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The La Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Getafe at 52%, the draw at 24% and Racing Santander at 24%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.11.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 32% | 51% | +19% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 68% | 49% | -19% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 54% | +17% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Getafe 2.00, draw 3.10, Racing Santander 4.10.
The league sets the starting point. La Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Getafe have 1 in 1 this season, Racing Santander 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 28% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.73 for Getafe and 1.11 for Racing Santander. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Racing Santander | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Getafe season stats · Racing Santander season stats · La Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.