Super Liga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 58%, the draw at 22% and Cukaricki at 20%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Crvena Zvezda have 2 in 3 this season (2 of 3 at home), Cukaricki 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 71% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.87 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.99 for Cukaricki. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 67% | 67% | 33% |
| Cukaricki | 5 | 40% | 20% | 20% |
More: FK Crvena Zvezda season stats · Cukaricki season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.