MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Cincinnati at 50%, the draw at 23% and Seattle Sounders at 27%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.29.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 58% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 42% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 61% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Cincinnati 1.80, draw 4.00, Seattle Sounders 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Cincinnati have 13 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), Seattle Sounders 7 in 17 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.81 for FC Cincinnati and 1.29 for Seattle Sounders. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 19 | 68% | 63% | 79% |
| Seattle Sounders | 17 | 41% | 24% | 53% |
More: FC Cincinnati season stats · Seattle Sounders season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.