Primera Division · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts FBC Melgar at 39%, the draw at 28% and Alianza Lima at 33%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FBC Melgar have 14 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), Alianza Lima 9 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.23 for FBC Melgar and 1.11 for Alianza Lima. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 22 | 64% | 41% | 68% |
| Alianza Lima | 22 | 41% | 18% | 50% |
More: FBC Melgar season stats · Alianza Lima season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.