Superliga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 53%, the draw at 25% and Tirana at 22%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 13 in 39 this season (6 of 19 at home), Tirana 11 in 36 (6 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 42%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.93 for Tirana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 39 | 33% | 21% | 33% |
| Tirana | 36 | 31% | 19% | 50% |
More: Egnatia Rrogozhinë season stats · Tirana season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.