Dinamo Tirana v Vora — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Superliga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 40%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Dinamo Tirana at 50%, the draw at 27% and Vora at 23%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 0.9.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Dinamo Tirana have 13 in 39 this season (6 of 18 at home), Vora 12 in 36 (6 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.

Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Dinamo Tirana and 0.9 for Vora. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

Things worth knowing

• Vora return after a break of about 15 weeks.

More: Dinamo Tirana season stats · Vora season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.