USL Championship · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Detroit City at 32%, the draw at 32% and Tampa Bay Rowdies at 35%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Detroit City have 9 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), Tampa Bay Rowdies 9 in 20 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Detroit City and 0.95 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit City | 19 | 47% | 11% | 47% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 20 | 45% | 30% | 45% |
More: Detroit City season stats · Tampa Bay Rowdies season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.