Deportivo Pasto v Llaneros — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Primera A · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 22:05. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera A average is 44%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Deportivo Pasto at 43%, the draw at 31% and Llaneros at 27%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 0.83.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Deportivo Pasto have 13 in 25 this season (5 of 13 at home), Llaneros 5 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 32%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.83 for Llaneros. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Deportivo Pasto season stats · Llaneros season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.