Primera Nacional · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Maipu at 49%, the draw at 28% and Quilmes at 23%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Maipu have 12 in 25 this season (4 of 12 at home), Quilmes 9 in 25 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.85 for Quilmes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maipu | 25 | 48% | 28% | 48% |
| Quilmes | 25 | 36% | 12% | 28% |
More: Deportivo Maipu season stats · Quilmes season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.