Primera Division · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Danubio at 33%, the draw at 31% and Racing Montevideo at 36%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 38% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 62% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 50% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Danubio 2.75, draw 2.90, Racing Montevideo 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Danubio have 10 in 24 this season (3 of 11 at home), Racing Montevideo 7 in 24 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 0.97 for Danubio and 1.04 for Racing Montevideo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 24 | 42% | 25% | 50% |
| Racing Montevideo | 24 | 29% | 17% | 50% |
More: Danubio season stats · Racing Montevideo season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.