Criciuma v Fortaleza EC — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Criciuma at 49%, the draw at 31% and Fortaleza EC at 20%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 0.64.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Criciuma have 4 in 22 this season (1 of 11 at home), Fortaleza EC 9 in 22 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 38%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Criciuma and 0.64 for Fortaleza EC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Criciuma season stats · Fortaleza EC season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.