Primera · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Concepción at 43%, the draw at 25% and Coquimbo Unido at 32%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Concepción have 7 in 19 this season (3 of 10 at home), Coquimbo Unido 9 in 17 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Concepción and 1.27 for Coquimbo Unido. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 19 | 37% | 11% | 32% |
| Coquimbo Unido | 17 | 53% | 35% | 65% |
More: Concepción season stats · Coquimbo Unido season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.