NWSL (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Chicago Red Stars W at 39%, the draw at 25% and Racing Louisville W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.39.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Red Stars W have 7 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), Racing Louisville W 14 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.39 for Racing Louisville W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Red Stars W | 19 | 37% | 16% | 16% |
| Racing Louisville W | 19 | 74% | 42% | 74% |
More: Chicago Red Stars W season stats · Racing Louisville W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.