Segunda · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Segunda average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Castellón at 45%, the draw at 26% and Sabadell at 29%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Castellón have 0 in 1 this season, Sabadell 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Castellón and 1.12 for Sabadell. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sabadell | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Castellón season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.