USL Championship · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Brooklyn at 35%, the draw at 31% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 34%, from expected goals of 1.01 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brooklyn have 11 in 18 this season (2 of 8 at home), Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8 in 20 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.01 for Brooklyn and 1 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn | 18 | 61% | 33% | 44% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
More: Brooklyn season stats · Pittsburgh Riverhounds season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.