NWSL (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Bay FC W at 42%, the draw at 28% and Houston Dash W at 30%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bay FC W have 9 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), Houston Dash W 9 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Bay FC W and 1.03 for Houston Dash W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC W | 19 | 47% | 32% | 42% |
| Houston Dash W | 18 | 50% | 22% | 50% |
More: Bay FC W season stats · Houston Dash W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.