MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Austin at 47%, the draw at 23% and Philadelphia Union at 30%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 62% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 38% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 61% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Austin 2.55, draw 3.40, Philadelphia Union 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Austin have 13 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), Philadelphia Union 12 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Austin and 1.38 for Philadelphia Union. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 18 | 72% | 44% | 56% |
| Philadelphia Union | 19 | 63% | 37% | 68% |
More: Austin season stats · Philadelphia Union season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.