Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts 1899 Hoffenheim W at 28%, the draw at 21% and Stuttgart W at 51%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 2.03.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 1899 Hoffenheim W have 15 in 26 this season (8 of 13 at home), Stuttgart W 19 in 27 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.46 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 2.03 for Stuttgart W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim W | 26 | 58% | 31% | 46% |
| Stuttgart W | 27 | 70% | 59% | 63% |
More: 1899 Hoffenheim W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.